1. Influence on supply chain
- Toilet paper: In many countries, the media has reported mass toilet paper purchasing behaviors. We visualize situations in cities all over the world based on products sold on Amazon. More details
- PPE (Personal Protection Equipment): Face masks could be one of essential goods to avoid infection not only for doctors and nurses but also for the general public. Similar to toilet paper, large quantities are in demand across nations.
- Pasta: Food supplies that can be stored for long periods of time is important when people stay at home for weeks. Pasta (especially spaghetti) could be a popular food to be stored in the pantry.
Topic 1. Toilet paper
Contributors: Yuta Kanzawa and Kunihiko Miyoshi
We extracted expected delivery days and prices of toilet paper from Amazon websites around the world (*1) starting from April 9, 2020. Delivery locations were determined by the postal codes available on the websites, or by the locations based on our point of access (*2). Estimated delivery days is calendar days between the earliest date shown in the product page in Amazon and the date we saw that page (*3). We have some missing data points due to failures of data collection.
Fact 1. Estimated Delivery Days (EDD)
In general, city-wise median values of estimated delivery days are decreasing or being flat (Fig. 1).
EDD for New York City, USA rapidly changes after April 15 in the range of 7 to 52 days in April, and was at a relatively high level compared to the other cities in May and June. Supply to the city could have been significantly slowed due to the pandemic and improved as situations getting better.
In April, toilet papers are to be delivered within 10 days in most of European and Asian cities except Delhi, India. In May and June, EDD in Beijing, China rose to around 15 days and stayed at the same level through June. In contrast, the most notable city is Mexico City, Mexico, where EDD is being smallest over the time (less than 3 days).
Fact 2. Price
People can purchase a roll of toilet paper under 2 USD in most cities except in Beijing (Fig. 2). New York City has higher values compared to other cities (except Beijing) during April and May, and Mexico City has the lowest values followed by São Paulo, Brazil.
Higher prices in Beijing could be a result of products sold in Amazon China being imported from Europe and Japan where the governments have closed borders or limited international travel.
Fact 3. Availability
In the most cities, more than 50% of listed toilet papers have been available (*4). Especially, São Paulo had kept almost 100% availability until mid-May before the pandemic spread in the country.
On the other hand, numbers with Delhi have been totally different from the others. Availability in Delhi was around 20% in April. It improved shortly after April 16, but had moved around 60% and been still lower than the other cities.
Fact 4. Delivery and Price of Toilet Paper
Figure 4 is a time lapse visualization of expected delivery days and price.
New York City moves mostly in the right side of the area while European and Asian cities are in the left side. Beijing is alone in the left upper area and Mexico City stays at the left bottom corner.
We will continue to monitor delivery delays and price changes.